Leadership from the top – governments, targets and policy
It took Covid-19, a global pandemic that ‘shut down’ many parts of the world for months at a time, to realise a drop in CO₂ emissions of 6.4% in 2020. If we are to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal, emissions will need to fall 7.6% every year between 2020-2030. Even the most ambitious government targets fall far short, and a fivefold increase is needed in current commitments.¹⁴
Governments must embrace this challenge and the economic benefits it can present, as well as the obvious environmental benefits. Policy and legislation are needed to ensure that ambition is translated into action. And while this certainly applies to all countries, it is vital we get top-down change from the world’s biggest carbon emitters – China, the US, India, Russia and the European Union (EU).
Some countries are beginning to get it right. According to the National Geographic’s ‘The Report Card’, India is towards the top of the league, having emerged as a global leader in renewable energy.¹⁵
Indeed, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) shows that currently India’s progress is in line with 2°C and that its National Energy Plan could be 1.5°C compatible if it abandoned plans to build new coal-fired power plants.¹⁶
The European Union (EU), and the 27 countries that comprise it, is making progress. In 2009 it set a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. Its Paris target increased that to 40% by 2030, and in November 2020 it was increased again and a new 2030 target of 55% was agreed.¹⁷
However, even before this, there was criticism that this new target still did not go far enough and the EU needs to do more.¹⁸
While more action is needed around the globe, what is most concerning is who we find towards the bottom of the league. Russia and the US both have projected emissions that are far greater than those required to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Russia only formally ratified its Paris Agreement target in September 2019. However, the target – to work towards a cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 of up to 30% below emission levels in 1990 – has been heavily criticised as inadequate ‘baby steps’ by Greenpeace in Moscow.¹⁹
These targets actually allow for an increase in CO₂ emissions as the country is already well below its 1990 figures. Previously, emission levels in Russia were higher in 1990 than at any point in the past thirty years, due to the inefficient and heavy industries of the former Soviet Union.
As for the US, the second biggest global emitter, the CAT²⁰ has categorised the country’s efforts as ‘critically insufficient’.
Fig. 1 – The 1.5°C goal is on the brink of becoming impossible
Based on current estimates, global greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by 7.6% each year between 2020-30 if we are to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal.
Source: United Nations
According to the UN Environment Programme, to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C, CO₂ emissions must drop rapidly to 25 gigatons by 2030 (requiring a 7.6% reduction each year). However, based on today’s commitments, emissions are on track to reach 56 Gt CO₂e by 2030.²¹
For the past four years, the Trump administration demonstrated hostility towards climate change action. It attempted to roll back its Clean Power Plan, sought to relax vehicle efficiency standards and withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2020.
However, following the 2020 US election there is a renewed hope for a greener US. President Biden has announced plans to adopt tough new climate targets for the US and has already reversed many of the detrimental actions of the Trump administration.
He has called climate change an “existential threat to humanity” and pledged a $1.7tn green stimulus package to help reduce US emissions.²² He has cancelled the Keystone XL oil pipeline, re-entered the Paris Agreement and pledged to cut US emissions to net zero by 2050, and for all electricity to be emissions-free by 2035. It is still early days, and the US has much catching up to do, but the outlook is now immensely more positive.
As the world’s largest emitter of CO₂, China had only previously committed to aim to peak its emissions in about 2030. However, President Xi Jinping announced in September 2020 that it will strengthen its commitment by peaking emissions before 2030 and aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.²³
However, while the Chinese president has said it will adopt more vigorous policies, measures and stimulus packages²⁴, the CAT states that it is yet to see the country implement the policies that will set China on a low carbon trajectory. It added that, due to China’s continued commitment to supporting the coal industry, its climate change action rating would remain at “highly insufficient”.²⁵
Indeed, when we look at the top five individual global emitters (China, the US, India, Russia and Japan) only India is taking the right steps towards 1.5°C.²⁶
Fig. 2 – Each country's share of CO₂ emissions
Global CO₂ emissions from the combustion of coal, natural gas, oil and other fuels, including industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste, by country 2018/19. Based on data compiled by the International Energy Agency.
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists